Financial constraint and perceptions of COVID-19

In early March 2020, two crises emerged: the COVID-19 public health crisis and a corresponding economic crisis resulting from business closures and skyrocketing job losses. While the link between socioeconomic status and infectious disease is well-documented, the psychological relationships among economic considerations, such as financial constraint and economic anxiety, and health considerations, such as perceptions of disease spread and preventative actions, is not well understood. Despite past research illustrating the strong link between financial fragility and a wide range of behaviors, surprisingly little research has examined the psychological relationship between the economic crisis and beliefs and behaviors related to the co-occurring health crisis. We show that financial constraint predicts people’s beliefs about both their personal risk of infection and the national spread of the virus as well as their social distancing behavior. In addition, we compare the predictive utility of financial constraint to two other commonly studied factors: political partisanship and local disease severity. We also show that negative affect partially mediates the relationship between financial constraint and COVID-19 beliefs and social distancing behaviors. These results suggest the economic crisis created by COVID-19 spilled over into people’s beliefs about the health crisis and their behaviors.


Method
Participants. Supplementary Figure S1 shows the locations of participants in the main study. Figure S1. : Participant locations (by zipcode) from the main sample. The map was created using Plotly (version 5.9.0), an open source graphing library in Python, which can be accessed at https://plotly.com/python/maps/

Results
Predictors of social distancing. We hypothesized that, in addition to negative affect, beliefs about personal risk and nation spread mediate the relationship between financial constraint and social distancing behavior. Because we previously assumed that negative affect mediated the relationship between personal risk / national spread and financial constraint, we developed a path model to test the multiple pathways from financial constraint to social distancing. The results of this analysis is shown in Supplementary Table S1. We see that the indirect paths through national spread and negative affect are both significant. The indirect path through personal risk is not. Participants. We collected a third cross-sectional wave of data, beginning on April 7, 2020 (n = 2025), and a fourth wave of data, beginning on April 10, 2020 (n = 2080), from Lucid. As in the main study, we targeted a nationally representative sample of 2,000 participants for this wave, prior to exclusions. Our aim was to have between 1000 and 1500 participants after exclusions. Sample size was predetermined before running the study, and we did not analyze data until all of the data had been collected. As described in the Results section, we had a total of 2,361 participants after exclusions. These participants ranged in age from 18-90 (M=44), 50% were male, with an average income of between $50,000-$59,999. Supplementary Figure S2 shows the locations of participants in the replication study. This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board at the University of Chicago. Where would you place yourself on this ladder? Please choose a number on the rung where you think you stand at this time in your life, relative to other people in your community." Responses were reported on a 10-point scale where a response of 1 was associated with the lowest rung on the ladder and a response of 10 was associated with the highest rung on the ladder.

Results
Participants were excluded based on the following criteria, matching the exclusion criteria from the main study: (1) education level was not reported, (2) a valid zip code was not provided, (3) political affiliation was reported as 'other', and (4) invalid responses to three questions about predicting (remembering) the number of future (past) cases. For these questions, participants were provided clear instructions on appropriate responses (e.g., a number less than the US population of 329,000,000). Invalid responses on these questions likely indicate inattentive and disengaged participants. In total, there were 2,361 participants after the exclusions.
Predictors of financial constraint. An ordinal logistic regression was calculated to predict financial constraint based on seven predictors: perceived SES, impact on earnings, COVID-19 job risks, income, age, education, and political affiliation. Results are shown in Supplementary Table We hypothesized that negative affect mediates the relationship between financial constraint and beliefs about personal risk of contracting COVID-19. Negative affect was calculated as the sum of the five negative affect items on the short-form of the PANAS (i.e., upset, hostile, ashamed, nervous, and afraid). The indirect and total effects from the mediation analysis are show in Supplementary Table S4. As shown in the table, the standardized regression coefficient between financial constraint and negative affect was statistically significant (b = .285, z = 14.47, p < .001). The standardized regression coefficient between negative affect and personal risk (b = .111, z = 5.24, p < .001) was also significant. The standardized indirect effect was (.285)(.111) = .032, which was significant (z = 4.92, p < .001).     In addition to negative affect, we hypothesized that beliefs about personal risk and national spread mediate the relationship between financial constraint and social distancing behavior. Because we previously assumed that negative affect mediated the relationship between personal risk / national spread and financial constraint, we developed a path model to test the multiple pathways from financial constraint to social distancing. The results of this analysis is shown in Supplementary Table S9. We see that the indirect path through national spread is significant and the indirect

Survey Materials
There were 56 questions in the survey. They are listed below in the order they were presented to participants.
1. In this first set of 10 decisions, imagine that you are given a chance to earn a cash prize today. For each decision, you will choose between playing a Gamble and a sure thing. . As researchers conducting a study, it is important for us to know that you are reading these questions carefully. To show us that you are reading, please type "clean" in the space beside "other" below. 25. Please consider the following items. First, think about how much you were willing to pay for this item at the beginning of January 2020 (prior to the COVID-19 outbreak in the US). Relative to that, approximately how much more or less would you be willing to pay now? Keep in mind that -100% means you would pay $0 now, while +100% means you would pay 2x as much now.
-Non-perishable foods (e.g., pasta, dried beans, frozen vegetables) -Fresh fruits and vegetables (e.g., bananas, oranges, broccoli) -Cleaning supplies (e.g., soap, hand sanitizer, disinfecting wipes) -Clothing (e.g., pants, tops, shoes) -Technology (e.g., computers, phones, tablets) 26. Imagine that the government sent you a check for $1,000 that you cashed today. If you were to spend this money over the next month, how would you divide it across the following categories?
-Housing (rent, mortgage) and utilities -Food -Medical and healthcare -Savings and investing -Debt repayments -Personal spending, recreation, and entertainment -Other (please specify) 27. To what extent do you worry about not having enough money to buy groceries next week? (1 = Not at all, 7 = Extremely much) 28. How difficult do you think it will be for you to pay your bills this month? (1 = Not difficult at all, 7 = Extremely difficult) 29. Thinking about everything you've done in the past 24 hours, which of the following comes closest to describing your in-person contact with people outside your household?
-Completely isolated yourself, having no contact with people outside your household -Mostly isolated yourself, having very little contact with people outside your household -Partially isolated yourself, having some contact with people outside your household -Isolated yourself a little, still having a fair amount of contact with people outside your household -Did not make any attempt to isolate yourself from people outside your household 30. Within the past week, have you taken any of the following actions to help others? (check all that apply) -Volunteering time through a local organization (e.g., charity, church) -Helping friends or family directly with your time (e.g., running errands) -Lending money to friends or family that they will repay -Giving money to friends or family that they will keep -Donating money to local organizations (e.g., charity, church) -Donating money to national organizations (e.g., the Red Cross) -Helping local stores (e.g., purchasing gift-cards, donation campaigns) -Other (please specify) -I am not currently taking actions because I am unable -I am not currently taking actions because I do not want to -I am not currently taking actions, but plan to in the future 31. Within the past week, have you received help in any of the following forms? (check all that apply) -Receiving help form a local organization (e.g., charity, church) -Receiving help from a national organization (e.g., the Red Cross) -Receiving direct help from friends or family with regards to their time (e.g., running errands) -Borrowing money from friends or family with the plan to give it back -Receiving money from friends or family to keep -Receiving government aid (e.g., food stamps, unemployment payments, social security payments) -Other (please specify) -I am not receiving help 32. Discounts that you use We are interested in the types of discounts that you use. However, more influential than your discount preferences is whether you are taking the time to read these instructions.To indicate that you have read these instructions, please select the "other" option below and enter the word "food" in the available text box.  43. Relative to others in the US, how would you view your current financial position? -Much worse than others -Somewhat worse than others -About the same as others -Somewhat better than other -Much better than others 44. Relative to others in your community, how would you view your current financial position? -Much worse than others -Somewhat worse than others -About the same as others -Somewhat better than other -Much better than others 45. Relative to yourself one year ago, how would you view your current financial position?
-Much worse than others -Somewhat worse than others -About the same as others -Somewhat better than other -Much better than others 46. Relative to others in the US, how would you view your current non-financial position? (e.g., living situation, ability to have social interactions) -Much worse than others -Somewhat worse than others -About the same as others -Somewhat better than other -Much better than others 47. Relative to others in your community, how would you view your current non-financial position? (e.g., living situation, ability to have social interactions) -Much worse than others -Somewhat worse than others -About the same as others -Somewhat better than other -Much better than others 48. Relative to yourself one year ago, how would you view your current non-financial position? (e.g., living situation, ability to have social interactions) -Much worse than others -Somewhat worse than others -About the same as others -Somewhat better than other -Much better than others